Vancouver Numbers
'You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.' Ayn Rand (1905-1982)
Vancouver Numbers
All new statistics look very good when compared with April 2009 - prices are still up substantially. But when you look inside the numbers and compare them to March 2010 they tell a different story. A story that we have been forecasting or at least worrying about. So, the average prices in Vancouver are still higher over last year but declined from the March 2010 averages:
1. The overall average price (condos, houses, townhouses) is down from March's $693,500 to April's $674,410 or lower by 3%.
2. The average used home price is down from $999,500 to $986,900 – lower by 2%.
3. The average used condo price is down from $427,500 to $417,800 – lower by 2.5%
4. Active used condo listings (all listings still for sale from as far back as February and including April) are up for the first time in over a year – and up substantially - by +38% (from 4,435 to 6144) and used condo NEW listings (listed in April only) are up by a whopping 91%! (1,557 to 2995!). Used home NEW listings are also way up by 68% (from 1,816 to 3,011).
5. Overall – all property - active listings are now also up by 18% - a sharp turnaround and a far cry from the huge decreases reported in the last few months. For the last 9 months we have been showing that lower listing inventories and large increases in volume had an effect on prices – as in higher. And rise they did. NOW, we have the opposite – higher listings and lower volumes ... clearly pre-telling a leveling or downturn in prices. We put the March numbers against the April numbers for better comparison.
Vancouver | March 2010 | March 2009 | % | YTD 2010 | YTD 2009 | % |
Units Sold | 3,146 | 2,274 | +38% | 7,548 | 4,520 | +66% |
Average Price | 693,500 | 532,100 | +30% | 669.500 | 536,000 | +24% |
Active Listings | 13,581 | 14,579 | -06% |
Det. Prices New | 1,053,500 | 1,056,100 | 00% | 1,111,000 | 1,160,000 | -04% |
Det. Prices Used | 999,500 | 740,500 | +34% | 968,100 | 738,000 | +31% |
Apt. Prices New | 489,200 | 411,800 | +18% | 495,000 | 443,300 | +11% |
Apt. Prices Used | 427,500 | 347,600 | +22% | 421,600 | 344,200 | +22% |
Vancouver | April 2010 | April 2009 | % | YTD 2010 | YTD 2009 | % |
Units Sold | 3,514 | 2,966 | +18% | 11,062 | 7,486 | +47% |
Average Price | 674,100 | 565,800 | +19% | 671,100 | 547,000 | +22% |
Active Listings | 15,901 | 14,311 | +11% |
Det. Prices New | 1,327,700 | 1,292,700 | +02% | 1,166,400 | 1,214,000 | -03% |
Det. Prices Used | 986,700 | 767,800 | +28% | 974,100 | 750,000 | +29% |
Apt. Prices New | 553,900 | 449,000 | +23% | 509,500 | 445,000 | +11% |
Apt. Prices Used | 417,500 | 355,500 | +17% | 420,300 | 349,000 | +20% |
Major Point: As we said for the last few months: "Signs of a slowly turning market? Sellers are putting their properties on the market in large numbers. As we have been urging you for the last little while, this first half of 2010 maybe a good time to sell, to reassess what we own and above all ... refinance it NOW!" Add to this rising rates, CMHC investor rule changes and we may have a sharper downturn than was thought possible. As I said at our Land Rush conference: "The numbers compared to last year will look worse since prices started to turn last year about this time and now will be reflected against today’s numbers." The big concern I expressed: "If we can get that fearful that fast and then that euphoric even faster ... what is to stop us to get fearful again- just as fast?" Look at the mad world around us - lots to get us fearful again.